Rethinking Soil, Agriculture and Resilience in a Hydrologically Overdrawn World
There was a time when water scarcity was described as a crisis, temporary, cyclical, manageable. Today, that framing is no longer sufficient.
According to the 2026 report Global Water Bankruptcy Living Beyond Our Hydrological Means in the Post-Crisis Era by the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH), the planet has entered a persistent post-crisis state of failure in many basins and aquifers.
The report makes a bold assertion: “Water stress” and “water crisis” are no longer adequate descriptions of today’s reality. Many rivers, lakes, aquifers and wetlands have crossed tipping points and cannot simply “bounce back”. This is not about temporary shortage. It is about structural overshoot.
The Hydrological Balance Sheet
Water bankruptcy reframes how depletion is understood. In financial terms, bankruptcy occurs when spending exceeds not only income but also savings. Hydrologically, the “income” is renewable rainfall and river flow. The “savings” are aquifers, wetlands, glaciers and healthy soils. And humanity has been liquidating them.
More than half of the world’s large lakes have lost water since the early 1990s, affecting about one-quarter of the global population that depends directly on them. Over the past five decades, the world has lost roughly 410 million hectares of natural wetlands, nearly the land area of the European Union, with ecosystem services valued at over US$5.1 trillion.
Groundwater depletion is even more alarming: around 70% of the world’s major aquifers show long-term declines, groundwater now supplies about 50% of domestic water use and over 40% of irrigation water worldwide, land subsidence linked to over-extraction affects more than 6 million km², nearly 5% of global land area, impacting close to 2 billion people.
At the same time, the cryosphere, the planet’s long-term water reserve, has already lost more than 30% of its glacier mass since 1970 in several locations.
The world is not simply facing drought cycles. These trends are eroding the very systems that regulate water.
Agriculture at the Center of the Equation
Agriculture sits at the heart of this hydrological imbalance. Roughly 70% of global freshwater withdrawals are used for agriculture.
At the same time, around 3 billion people and more than half of global food production are in areas where total water storage is already declining or unstable, more than 170 million hectares of irrigated cropland are under high or very high water stress, salinization has degraded over 100 million hectares of cropland globally. More than half of global agricultural land is now moderately or severely degraded, reducing soil moisture retention and accelerating desertification. Drought is increasingly anthropogenic, driven by overuse and land degradation, and already costs approximately US$307 billion per year globally.
The water crisis of the 20th century was about supply. The water bankruptcy of the 21st century is about systems.
Soil: The Overlooked Water Infrastructure
What the report makes clear, though often underemphasized in policy debates, is that land and soil degradation amplify hydrological collapse. Healthy soil is not just a production medium. It is water infrastructure.
Carbon-rich soils:
- Increase infiltration
- Reduce runoff
- Enhance groundwater recharge
- Improve drought resilience
- Stabilize yields under climatic variability
When soil organic matter declines, infiltration drops, compaction rises, and water becomes runoff rather than recharge. In a water-bankrupt world, regenerating soil is not optional. It is structural repair.
From Crisis Management to Bankruptcy Management
The report calls for an urgent shift from short-term crisis response to deliberate bankruptcy management, preventing further irreversible damage, transforming water-intensive sectors, reallocating demand, and ensuring just transitions.
It also warns that the current global water agenda, focused narrowly on drinking water and incremental efficiency improvements, is no longer sufficient for the Anthropocene. Water must be repositioned as foundational to climate, biodiversity, land and food systems. And agriculture must become part of the restructuring.
Regenerative Agriculture as Hydrological Restructuring
Regenerative agriculture offers a pathway aligned with this bankruptcy management logic. By restoring soil health, increasing biodiversity, and rebuilding ecological function, regenerative systems:
- Reduce irrigation dependence
- Improve water retention capacity
- Enhance aquifer recharge
- Buffer drought and extreme rainfall
- Lower systemic water risk
This is particularly relevant in arid and semi-arid regions such as the Middle East and North Africa, where aquifers are finite, temperatures are rising, and food security is strategic.
Recognizing water bankruptcy is not pessimism. It is clarity. And clarity opens the door to redesign. Where soil is restored, wetlands protected, recharge systems rebuilt and agriculture aligned with ecological limits, the outcome is not simply water conservation. It is the rebuilding of hydrological capital. In a fragmented and climate-stressed world, water can become the bridge, between climate action and food systems, between biodiversity and resilience. From depletion to regeneration. From constraint to opportunity.
About the MENA Regenerative Agriculture Initiative
The MENA Regenerative Agriculture Initiative, launched by Goumbook, is a regionally coordinated platform accelerating the transition to regenerative agriculture across the Middle East and North Africa. Its ambition is to position MENA as a centre of excellence for arid, climate-resilient agriculture by:
- Mobilising cross-sector stakeholders
- Building an enabling innovation ecosystem
- Scaling science-based and nature-based solutions
- Supporting on-the-ground adoption of regenerative practices
- Aligning finance with soil, water and biodiversity restoration
In a region at the frontline of water stress, regenerative agriculture represents a strategic pathway for food security, climate resilience and long-term hydrological stability.
More information about the report: https://unu.edu/inweh/collection/global-water-bankruptcy
If your organisation is exploring climate adaptation, water risk mitigation, or regenerative agriculture pathways, we invite you to connect with our team.
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